Risks: Assessment and Mitigation, Decisions and Alternatives

Crossing clockwise: crossing around the intersection clockwise, with the parallel street on the right.
Crossing counterclockwise: crossing with the parallel street on the left.
Conflict: in this section, a "conflict" between vehicles and pedestrians (or between vehicles) means that the vehicles / pedestrians are on a collision course that will result in a crash unless one of them takes evasive action, such as slowing down or waiting for the other.

1. What are the sources of danger at signalized crossings?

Sources of risk from legally moving vehicles:

Drawing is titled 'Parallel street on ped's right' and shows a pedestrian at a corner facing north with the parallel street on his right. A vehicle on the nearest lane of the street in front of the pedestrian is coming from the left and turning right to go south -- it is labeled 'perpendicular turning right on red.' Another car on the street beside the pedestrian is going north and turning left to cross the pedestrian's crosswalk, and is labeled 'Parallel turning left.' A third car is labeled 'parallel turning right' and is on the parallel street going south and turning right to cross the pedestrian's crosswalk.

Drawing is titled 'Parallel street on ped's left' and shows a pedestrian at a corner facing north with the parallel street on his left. A vehicle on the nearest lane of the street beside him is heading north and turning right to cross the pedestrian's crosswalk -- it is labeled 'parallel turning right.' Another car on the street beside the pedestrian was going south and is turning left to cross the pedestrian's crosswalk, and is labeled 'Parallel turning left.' A third car is labeled 'perpendicular turning right on red' and is on the far lane of the street the pedestrian is facing, and is turning right to go north on the parallel street.

Legally moving traffic, as shown in the drawing to the right:

Illegally moving traffic:

perpendicular traffic running the red light;

No pedestrian pushbutton at actuated signal:

being in crosswalk while traffic in the street you're crossing has a green signal

2. How can the risks of injury or death be reduced?

REDUCE RISKS WITH CROSSING STRATEGIES:

Because reducing one risk may increase another risk, you'll need to consider which risks you are most concerned about and choose the strategy that reduces those risks

Assessing the risk

For parallel traffic turning right on green across the crosswalk
For parallel traffic turning left on green across the crosswalk
For perpendicular traffic that turns right-on-red (RTOR)
For perpendicular traffic running the red light
For crossing with no pedestrian pushbutton at actuated signal
Factors affecting the risk of crossing at actuated intersections with no pedestrian signals and pushbuttons
- The more vehicles that are waiting on the parallel street to cross with you, the longer their green signal is likely to be, and the less risk of having the signal change to red before you finish your crossing.
- If there is a refuge island in the middle of the street where pedestrians can stand, you may be able to cross half the street at a time, during signal phases where traffic movement on that half of the street is stopped, and hope that they are stopped long enough for you to finish crossing. However, it is important to note that actuated signals are completely unpredictable, and the phase where the appropriate traffic is stopped may be shortened or even skipped altogether.
- If you expect the signal may turn green for traffic on the street you are crossing when you are still in the crosswalk, you may be more visible to the approaching vehicles (and they therefore may be more likely to yield to you) if you are on the side of the parallel street that is furthest from them. For example if you are concerned that your signal may change to red while you are still in the second half of the street, and drivers with the green signal will be coming from your right on the perpendicular street, you may be more visible to them if you cross with the parallel street on your right. The pictures and video below show the difference (left picture shows the pedestrian on the crosswalk close to the traffic appearing suddenly from in front of a vehicle, middle picture shows the same pedestrian visible from across the street throughout the entire half of the crossing, and the video illustrates them both).
CAUTION! Some people feel there is less risk if the signal phase that follows your crossing time has vehicular movement that does not conflict with you, but again, it is essential to realize that if those lanes are actuated, that signal phase will be eliminated if there are no vehicles waiting!!!

Likelihood of injury or death:

Barlow, Bentzen, and Bond (2005)

they didn't realize there was a problem

was killed

Rebekah

as explained below

the likelihood that there would be a conflict (an approaching vehicle) would be affected by a combination of the traffic volume and the likelihood that you will not complete the crossing before the signal changes;
if there is a conflict, the likelihood that drivers would yield would be affected by factors such as their speed, how visible you are to them, and how much they are expecting pedestrians;
if you are hit, the likelihood that you'd be seriously injured or killed would be affected by the drivers' speed.

REDUCE RISK BY SCANNING

veering or having difficulty finding the point of focus to maintain a straight crossing;
feeling dizzy if they turn their eyes or head too fast;
missing vehicles by
- scanning too quickly (especially a problem for people with restricted visual fields looking for vehicles that are close to them) or
- not knowing exactly where to look (especially for left-turning vehicles, which often move forward to wait in the intersection).

When crossing counterclockwise (parallel street on the left):

Before stepping out, look (and/or listen) left/behind for parallel right-turning vehicles, and left for traffic running through the red light.
If left-turning vehicles from the parallel street are likely to turn into the first lane, then also look forward and left to the source of those vehicles while still standing on the corner.
If it seems safe, step forward while still monitoring the right-turning vehicles, and step back if you think there is a driver who will not yield to you.
Continue to cross while looking left/forward for potential left-turning vehicles.
When approaching the last lane, look to the right for potential right-turn-on-red vehicles on the street you are crossing.

When crossing clockwise (parallel street on the right):

Before stepping out, look (and/or listen) to the left for traffic that may run through the red light or turn right on red (NOTE that drivers turning right on red may never even see you, as they will be looking away from you for a gap in approaching traffic)
Start to cross while continuing to look to the left.
Before reaching the middle of the street, look back over your right shoulder for potential parallel traffic turning left;
Look ahead for potential parallel traffic turning right.

REDUCE RISK BY MAKING DRIVERS MORE LIKELY TO YIELD:

Bourquin, Wall Emerson, Barlow and Sauerburger

For a description of the graph, click here.

for a description of the graph, go to www.sauerburger.org/signalanswer.html#fig2

the pedestrian must be seen and
the intention of the pedestrian should be unambiguous.

Bourquin et al.

All 4 photos show a man wearing dark pants and shirt and a dark cap standing at different corners, facing one street with another street on his left. Top left photo shows him facing a 7-lane suburban street -- with his right arm extended across his body, he holds a white cane with the grip near his left shoulder and tip at the curb in front of him. Top right photo shows him in front of a large building with the cane extended about knee-high. Bottom right photo shows him at the same corner stepping out into the street, with the cane extended about knee-high in front of him. Bottom right photo shows a different man with cane held like the first man held it, and his left arm is extended to the left with the palm facing away from him.

Cane movement ("cane flag," shown in top far right photo):
When the pedestrian displayed a cane to his left and then, at the beginning of the WALK signal, raised the tip waist-high and moved it across to the right and back down again twice, more than 60% of the right-turning drivers yielded (which was 50% more often than they did when the pedestrian just displayed the cane, or twice as much as they did when he had no cane).
Open hand ("hand up" to signify WAIT, as shown in bottom left photo to the right):
When the pedestrian displayed a cane with one hand and extended his other arm toward the drivers with his palm facing them, yielding went up to more than 70%.
Move one step forward ("reversible step," shown in bottom far right photo):
When a pedestrian with a white cane took a single step into the street while moving the cane, drivers stopped for him more than 90% of the time, or more than twice as often as they did when the pedestrian simply stood while displaying the cane. The authors called this a "reversible step" because the pedestrian could step back if he didn't feel confident that vehicles were yielding.

should be implemented only when the pedestrian has the right-of-way

Does the white cane itself affect drivers' yielding?

Bourquin, Wall Emerson & Sauerburger, 2011

Are drivers more likely to yield if the pedestrian looks toward them or keeps facing straight?

Bourquin et al.

Does wearing a reflective vest keep the pedestrian safer?

click here

3. Assessing the risk -- how likely are you to be seriously injured or killed?

Factor #1: How likely will there be a conflict?

Factor #2: If there is a conflict, how likely will you be hit?

as described above

Speed of vehicle: the faster the vehicles are moving, the less likely the drivers will yield;
Left-turning vehicles: According to a crash study published by New York City's DOT (2016), more than twice as many pedestrian and bicyclist fatalities were caused by left-turning vehicles than by those turning right, and serious injuries and fatalities were more than 3 times as high. They concluded that
Protected vs permissive left-turn phasing: Because there is greater risk from vehicles in the parallel street turning left than from those turning right, signalized intersections which permit drivers to turn left while pedestrians are in the crosswalk (permissive or protected-permissive left-turn phasing) will be more risky than those that do not (that is, those which have no left turns allowed except during protected left turns).
Pedestrians present:
- the more pedestrians who are crossing together, the more likely the drivers will yield;
- the more that drivers expect pedestrians to be there, the more likely they will yield;
  Drivers do not expect pedestrians to cross against a red signal, so they are more likely to hit them in that situation than they are when pedestrians have the WALK signal.
Sight distance and visibility: drivers are less likely to yield when their view of pedestrians is blocked, for example by a hill or bend in the road, or when the visibility is low because of glare, rain, fog, dark, etc.
Road conditions: drivers are less likely to yield when the roads are slick with rain, or slippery with ice and snow.

Factor #3: If you are hit, how likely will you be severely injured or killed?

NY City DOT, 2016

Vehicle travel speed and pedestrian injury severity (Florida, 1993-1996; pedestrian in single-car crashes)

	Travel speed (officers' estimate)
Injury severity	1-20 mph 0-32 kmh	21-25 mph 33-40 kmh	26-30 mph 41-48 kmh	31-35 mph 49-56 kmh	36-45 mph 57-72 kmh	46+ mph 73+ kmh	TOTAL
Fatal	1.1%	3.7%	6.1%	12.5%	22.4%	36.1%	6.5%
Incapacitating	19.4%	32.0%	35.9%	39.3%	40.2%	33.7%	27.0%
Fatal or incapacitating	20.5%	35.7%	42.0%	51.8%	62.6%	69.8%	33.5%
Non-incapacitating	43.8%	41.2%	36.8%	31.6%	24.7%	20.5%	38.8%
Possible / no injury	35.6%	23.0%	21.2%	16.6%	12.7%	9.7%	27.7%

National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (1999). Literature Review on Vehicle Travel Speeds and Pedestrian Injuries

Once you've observed all the factors in a given situation, you can put all this together to come up with a likelihood of serious injury or death in that situation. You may find that at one crossing there are lots of potential conflicts because of heavy traffic, but it is moving very slowly and there are lots of pedestrians so the likelihood of being hit and severely injured is extremely low. At another crossing (or at the same crossing at another time of day or week!) there is very little traffic so the likelihood of conflict is very low, but when vehicles do come, they are moving very fast, drivers are not expecting pedestrians, it is dark and the road is slippery, which means that if there is a conflict, the risk of being hit and seriously injured or killed is high.

These factors have to be considered and weighed when deciding whether the risk is acceptable. If you want to see some examples of weighing these factors and making decisions at crossings that have no traffic control, you can click here.

4. Are the risks acceptable?

5. Considering alternatives

Pedestrians should be familiar with and experienced with implementing alternatives for situations where the risks of crossing are not acceptable. Some can be implemented immediately (such as getting assistance), some require some planning (avoiding the crossing or choosing an alternate route) and some will require months or even years to achieve.

Alternatives to consider:

Revise the strategy for crossing
Get assistance to cross
Avoid the crossing
Request traffic engineer to modify the crossing

STUDY QUESTIONS
for this section.

Proceed to "Accessible Pedestrian Signals"